I like the idea of rearranging the world to feel better about it. It makes me think of "Inception." I rationalize all the time by coming up with situations, that could occur if I had made an alternate choice, I may be regretting. For instance, if I see road construction and take an alternate route that lands me behind a slow driver, I rationalize the possibility of being later with the thought that at least I am less likely to get a flat tire from construction hazards. (which has happened once in the past).
In terms of the over estimation I would like to see if there is a correlation with the monks that the other psychologist is so interested in. I wonder if there will be a difference. Secondly what is the implication of impact bias on impulse control. Can we convince an overactive individual that there will be "a changing of our views of the world". Lastly to address rationalization is it really adaptation of cognition and if so why does it fail for select individuals.
Gilbert's points about affective forecasting are so true; everybody expects that certain events are going to make them either really happy or really unhappy for an extended period of time after they occur. However, that is rarely the case because as Gilbert said, we forget about it very quickly and we move on with our lives. Something may seem life-altering before it happens, and once it does, it is seen as much less effective in significantly changing our overall emotions. Something terrible or great may happen, and it seems awful at the time, but it wears off over time and we move on. I would like to see research on under-estimating the emotional effect of various events.
I think that knowing we misjudge our positive / negative affect is extremely important, because then we can do something to prevent, or lessen our judgements that have us believing in over-exaggerated outcomes. I think the 'impact bias,' and our unawareness of our 'psychological immune system' has a tendency to cause people extreme forms of distress. Like Gilbert mentions, I think that thinking about other impacting factors - such as plans with friends, and other obligations that occur around the time of a negative or positive event can lessen our feelings of stress, or distress.
I can definitely see how people over or underestimating their outcomes can effect their happiness. Gilbert's point about the impact bias was very interesting to me. I know when we overestimate how happy something is going to make us, we look forward to it, and are often disappointed with the outcome. I think that someone should study underestimations. I can definitely see them occurring in my own life. When we think something is going to be terrible, when it actually happens and doesn't end up being quite as bad, we are easily able to move on with our lives. I think this underestimation is helpful in our lives because we are usually pleased with the outcome.
This article and video was interesting to me. I agreed very much with the points made by Gilbert such as the extent to which we feel we need things and how our "affective forecasting" of how happy we will be when we get that thing. From experience last year i wanted an ipad very badly and was completely impatient about getting it. I purchased one in December 2010 and carried it every where with me and thought it was the best thing ever. By May I was already trying to sell it and the knew one had come out. Though i didn't express the need for the ipad 2 I did at times wish i had that one instead even though I hardly needed the one i had. One thing I also agreed with was his example of how long we predict it will take us to get over a situation for example a break up, most people have gone through this and at times you think you'll never move on or find anyone else. In a relatively short amount of time we do just that, move on. What I did not agree with was his example of losing a child and comparing this or showing this by using an example of losing a football game and how students would feel 3 days after. I think if someone asked me how I would feel when the boys usm basket ball team or any other USM sport lost I couldn't care less because I don't play sports nor am I going to USM to watch sports. If I lost a child I believe that it would take far longer than 2 years for someone to come to terms with this and also a lot of outside help. I understand that small everyday pleasures would return, and the person would not be miserable every day all day. I do think on a bigger scale this would be some thing that someone would not go a day with out thinking about for a very long time, even in happy situations. Say a couple lost a child and they have another baby on the day that baby is born it would be an instant reminder of what they lost even if they have a positive spin on it. Same with holidays and birthdays, marriages and grandchildren, there would be the reminder that the lost child would never get to experience those things. Though yes the feelings would not be quite so harsh. My Uncle died about 3 years ago he was in his late 30's and had a son and ex wife. My grandmother gets upset on holidays and his birthday and seems very depressed even though she does now put a positive spin on these times, saying that he is here with us and looking down on us. You can also see how this has profoundly affected his teenage son who especially with the death at this age may change his life and who he becomes.
I can relate with what Gilbert is talking about. I think it explains the wanting what you cant have effect. You want something and think if you could only get there or have that you will be fulfilled. But once you achieve that goal or make that purchase, very shortly there will be something else to strive for. I wonder if he interprets individuals who are clinically depressed as having an inability to rationalize. Also he made a point about how people are unaware that we have this psychological "immunity" working to help cope and get over upsetting events, well after watching this video those of us in the class are now aware so will this effect our predictions in the future? Also people experience anxiety before events, whether exciting, awkward, dangerous etc. and i think the anxious feeling contributes to the exaggeration of our predictions of the way the events will go.
Affective forecasting seems like it would leave a lot of people disappointed about any event they predicted to be satisfying. It appears that being pessimistic would have some sort of advantage because at least you would never be disappointed, whereas an optimist would almost certainly be disappointed all the time. According to this concept, being pessimistic is simply a self preservation method.
The idea of affective forecasting is really interesting. It's amazing how humans are the only animals with this ability. The idea of being able to predict how happy one will be in a particular scenario could help with one's overall life satisfaction. If there was a way to teach ourselves how to use the affective forecasting in a more controlled way, it would be much more beneficial. This could also be a great technique used in therapy to help someone prepare for multiple outcomes in a certain situation.
We are always trying to predict the outcomes, or feelings that certain events will bring to us. Overestimating and underestimating these things can definitely cause a negative affect on us. Its hard not to think of certain situations without thinking of how it will make us feel, or how it will effect our lives/ selves. Overestimating the outcome of a certain event to be better than it actually was seems to be more detrimental to our psyche because then we are overly disappointed and it is hard for us to move on from this experience, whereas underestimating (a bad event) when really the event wasn't as bad as we had hyped ourselves up about can help us move on, and in the future we won't dread the event so much because we will know that it wasn't as bad as we had once thought. I feel like I find myself doing both of these things in life, and if I would just stop to think about everything else that comes along with the event, and that life doesn't stop but goes on, things would be much easier to handle.
Paul Bavineau I wonder if the impact bias is an important aspect of emotional well-being. What I mean to say is, feeling as though the death of a loved one, etc. will be more detrimental than it actually will turn out to be functions as a buffer of sorts. Having this perspective on personal events may help create a buffer to social expectations. In that way it is helpful to have an impact bias, as it may help a person aquire more empathy from others. The other thing that came to mind for me was that, in the example of how people would predict the feelings after the loss of the football team, Gilbert has the participants look at other things going on in their life. This is really, in my mind, cognitive therapy. The person is bringing perspective into the situation, which then creates more and more possibilities. More possibilities create less anxiety, depression, and it creates more hope for the situation.
11 comments:
I like the idea of rearranging the world to feel better about it. It makes me think of "Inception."
I rationalize all the time by coming up with situations, that could occur if I had made an alternate choice, I may be regretting.
For instance, if I see road construction and take an alternate route that lands me behind a slow driver, I rationalize the possibility of being later with the thought that at least I am less likely to get a flat tire from construction hazards. (which has happened once in the past).
Scott Reiner
In terms of the over estimation I would like to see if there is a correlation with the monks that the other psychologist is so interested in. I wonder if there will be a difference.
Secondly what is the implication of impact bias on impulse control. Can we convince an overactive individual that there will be "a changing of our views of the world".
Lastly to address rationalization is it really adaptation of cognition and if so why does it fail for select individuals.
Jonathan Bellino
Gilbert's points about affective forecasting are so true; everybody expects that certain events are going to make them either really happy or really unhappy for an extended period of time after they occur. However, that is rarely the case because as Gilbert said, we forget about it very quickly and we move on with our lives. Something may seem life-altering before it happens, and once it does, it is seen as much less effective in significantly changing our overall emotions. Something terrible or great may happen, and it seems awful at the time, but it wears off over time and we move on. I would like to see research on under-estimating the emotional effect of various events.
I think that knowing we misjudge our positive / negative affect is extremely important, because then we can do something to prevent, or lessen our judgements that have us believing in over-exaggerated outcomes. I think the 'impact bias,' and our unawareness of our 'psychological immune system' has a tendency to cause people extreme forms of distress. Like Gilbert mentions, I think that thinking about other impacting factors - such as plans with friends, and other obligations that occur around the time of a negative or positive event can lessen our feelings of stress, or distress.
-Bianca Sturchio
I can definitely see how people over or underestimating their outcomes can effect their happiness. Gilbert's point about the impact bias was very interesting to me. I know when we overestimate how happy something is going to make us, we look forward to it, and are often disappointed with the outcome. I think that someone should study underestimations. I can definitely see them occurring in my own life. When we think something is going to be terrible, when it actually happens and doesn't end up being quite as bad, we are easily able to move on with our lives. I think this underestimation is helpful in our lives because we are usually pleased with the outcome.
-Chelsea Craig
This article and video was interesting to me. I agreed very much with the points made by Gilbert such as the extent to which we feel we need things and how our "affective forecasting" of how happy we will be when we get that thing. From experience last year i wanted an ipad very badly and was completely impatient about getting it. I purchased one in December 2010 and carried it every where with me and thought it was the best thing ever. By May I was already trying to sell it and the knew one had come out. Though i didn't express the need for the ipad 2 I did at times wish i had that one instead even though I hardly needed the one i had.
One thing I also agreed with was his example of how long we predict it will take us to get over a situation for example a break up, most people have gone through this and at times you think you'll never move on or find anyone else. In a relatively short amount of time we do just that, move on. What I did not agree with was his example of losing a child and comparing this or showing this by using an example of losing a football game and how students would feel 3 days after. I think if someone asked me how I would feel when the boys usm basket ball team or any other USM sport lost I couldn't care less because I don't play sports nor am I going to USM to watch sports. If I lost a child I believe that it would take far longer than 2 years for someone to come to terms with this and also a lot of outside help. I understand that small everyday pleasures would return, and the person would not be miserable every day all day. I do think on a bigger scale this would be some thing that someone would not go a day with out thinking about for a very long time, even in happy situations. Say a couple lost a child and they have another baby on the day that baby is born it would be an instant reminder of what they lost even if they have a positive spin on it. Same with holidays and birthdays, marriages and grandchildren, there would be the reminder that the lost child would never get to experience those things. Though yes the feelings would not be quite so harsh. My Uncle died about 3 years ago he was in his late 30's and had a son and ex wife. My grandmother gets upset on holidays and his birthday and seems very depressed even though she does now put a positive spin on these times, saying that he is here with us and looking down on us. You can also see how this has profoundly affected his teenage son who especially with the death at this age may change his life and who he becomes.
Jacqueline Nizer
I can relate with what Gilbert is talking about. I think it explains the wanting what you cant have effect. You want something and think if you could only get there or have that you will be fulfilled. But once you achieve that goal or make that purchase, very shortly there will be something else to strive for. I wonder if he interprets individuals who are clinically depressed as having an inability to rationalize. Also he made a point about how people are unaware that we have this psychological "immunity" working to help cope and get over upsetting events, well after watching this video those of us in the class are now aware so will this effect our predictions in the future? Also people experience anxiety before events, whether exciting, awkward, dangerous etc. and i think the anxious feeling contributes to the exaggeration of our predictions of the way the events will go.
Gina Marmanik
Affective forecasting seems like it would leave a lot of people disappointed about any event they predicted to be satisfying. It appears that being pessimistic would have some sort of advantage because at least you would never be disappointed, whereas an optimist would almost certainly be disappointed all the time. According to this concept, being pessimistic is simply a self preservation method.
-Jesse Miller
The idea of affective forecasting is really interesting. It's amazing how humans are the only animals with this ability. The idea of being able to predict how happy one will be in a particular scenario could help with one's overall life satisfaction. If there was a way to teach ourselves how to use the affective forecasting in a more controlled way, it would be much more beneficial. This could also be a great technique used in therapy to help someone prepare for multiple outcomes in a certain situation.
-Nick Randall
We are always trying to predict the outcomes, or feelings that certain events will bring to us. Overestimating and underestimating these things can definitely cause a negative affect on us. Its hard not to think of certain situations without thinking of how it will make us feel, or how it will effect our lives/ selves. Overestimating the outcome of a certain event to be better than it actually was seems to be more detrimental to our psyche because then we are overly disappointed and it is hard for us to move on from this experience, whereas underestimating (a bad event) when really the event wasn't as bad as we had hyped ourselves up about can help us move on, and in the future we won't dread the event so much because we will know that it wasn't as bad as we had once thought. I feel like I find myself doing both of these things in life, and if I would just stop to think about everything else that comes along with the event, and that life doesn't stop but goes on, things would be much easier to handle.
-Christi Ledwith
Paul Bavineau
I wonder if the impact bias is an important aspect of emotional well-being. What I mean to say is, feeling as though the death of a loved one, etc. will be more detrimental than it actually will turn out to be functions as a buffer of sorts. Having this perspective on personal events may help create a buffer to social expectations. In that way it is helpful to have an impact bias, as it may help a person aquire more empathy from others.
The other thing that came to mind for me was that, in the example of how people would predict the feelings after the loss of the football team, Gilbert has the participants look at other things going on in their life. This is really, in my mind, cognitive therapy. The person is bringing perspective into the situation, which then creates more and more possibilities. More possibilities create less anxiety, depression, and it creates more hope for the situation.
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